659042939589467
Uncategorized January 17, 2024

Update to 2024 Housing Predictions

Update to 2024 Housing Predictions.  If you read my blog 2 weeks ago, “Housing Predictions for 2024“, then you know I promised to update after the opportunity to hear Barry Habib speak.  Following are the key takeaways.

Interest Rates:  There is a reasonable chance of a rate decrease at the March 20th Fed meeting.  High probability of a rate decreases at both the May 1 and June 12 meeting.  Expect rates to be between mid-5’s and high 6’s for 2024.  Expect some additional decreases in 2025 and 2026.  Don’t expect rates to return to the 3’s.

Housing Prices:  Home appreciation is forecast to increase 4.5% – 5.00% and transaction volume is expected to rise 15% – 20%. The main driver of this is inventory.  There are far more households being formed than there are homes being built. This is why the real estate market has been so strong and why we are seeing prices increase in conjunction with the lack of inventory.  Expect 2024 to be no different.

So, what does this all mean?  Buy now.  Prices are only going to go up.  As rates go down more buyers enter the market.  Typically, a 1% decrease in interest rates results in 5 million more buyers entering the market.  Buy before prices go up and why you have less competition.  Spring typically brings more homes for sale.  However, it also brings more buyers to compete with.

In making updates to my 2024 Housing Predictions, I was pretty much on the money.   I have a few more details after the meeting, but my forecast certainly jives with Barry’s.

Real Estate Market Status January 4, 2024

Housing Predictions for 2024

2023 has come to an end, so let’s look at housing predictions for 2024.  While I don’t have a crystal ball, I do have my nerdy girl habit of reading articles on the economy and regularly pulling local market statistics.  However, next week I will have the opportunity of attending a talk by someone who has been the recipient of three Crystal Ball Awards for the accuracy of his real estate market forecasts. Mr. Barry Habib will be right here in little old Niceville.  I’ll let you know if he agrees with what I’m about to say here.

You can’t predict 2024 without looking at what happened in 2023.  There are a lot of factors driving the real estate market.  Inventory, the economy, home prices and interest rates are the key ones at the moment.

Let’s talk inventory:

6 months of inventory is considered a neutral market.  Anything less is considered a seller’s market.  2023 started off with 3.5 months of inventory.  Inventory levels never went above 3 months and ended with 2.5 months in December.  Less homes to choose from put sellers in the driver’s seat.  Many homeowners chose not to put their home up for sale because they are struggling to give up the sub-5% rate of their current mortgage. Lower rates in 2024 will hopefully help homeowners feel more comfortable listing their homes.  I would still predict inventory to lean to the seller’s advantage.

The economy

Unless you’ve been living under a rock or you are independently wealthy, the economy was tough for the average joe.  The robust GDP growth in Q3 2023 and continued resilience by consumers indicate the economy probably won’t start outright shrinking. Making it through 2024 without a recession will make life easier for most households.  Going into 2024, continued pressure from relatively high rates and a generally cooling economy should help bring inflation back down to more manageable levels.

Housing Prices: 

The median sales price for a single-family home in Niceville in December 2023 was $499,900; 9.63% higher than $456,000 from December 2022.  The average sales price in December 2023 was $575,940; 19.01% higher than $483,939 from December 2022.  The average sales price per square foot is a more normalized indicator for the direction of property value. The sales price per square foot in December 2023 was $251, equal to the previous month and 7.73% higher than $233 from December 2022.

A lot of people believe that we will have a market crash.  I do not believe Niceville will see this.  If you follow homes for sale, what you may have noticed is a lot of price reductions.  The sales price to list price ratio in Dec was 96.7% for Niceville.  This was the lowest in 3 years.  This tells me that while homeowners did not give their asking price, they still saw an increase from 2022.  I would expect home prices to remain steady in Niceville.  Historically, Niceville is a very stable market.

Interest Rates: 

Rates should level off, and likely, eventually fall. Even if the Fed doesn’t start cutting its benchmark rate until later this year, rates on products not directly tied to the Fed’s actions, like mortgages, could fall. If this happens, housing should get more affordable, even if home prices increase slightly in some areas.

In summary, the housing predictions for 2024 are positive.  I expect interest rates to come down slowly.   Don’t expect rates lower than the 5’s.   Inventory will remain tight.  Home prices will stay steady or slightly increase.  It remains to be seen if Barry Habib agrees with me.  However, Warren Buffett’s move to invest significantly in the housing market is a signal confidence in the industry and he agrees with a positive real estate outlook. We can’t forget that it’s an election year!

If you’re looking for someone to guide you buying or selling real estate, give me a call.  Residential or Commercial.

Real Estate Market Status December 12, 2023

Free Boat with Home Purchase

Sea Ray for Sale with or without homeFree boat with home purchase!  It’s not often that you hear that.  However, it is a real possibility.  I am representing a homeowner who would like to sell their waterfront home and their boat.  The house is located at 1716 19th Street in Niceville.  The boat is a 30 ft 2006 Sea Ray 300 Sundancer.  The boat is currently docked at the home on the 16K covered boat lift. Already have a boat, no worries.  There are 2 additional boat slips.  Interested in just the boat, it can be purchased separately and the current asking price is $49,750.

Interested in the house but not the boat, then the seller is ready to make other concessions.  Perhaps you would like him to pay for your closing costs or buydown your interest rate or just accept a lower purchase price.  Just give me a call (850-974-0869) and we can discuss what it would take to make you the new owner.

 

Waterfront Home for Sale in Niceville Waterfront Home is move in readyThe house has been beautifully updated and is move in ready.   The house is located on deep protected water in Sarah Ann Bayou.  This bayou has direct access to the bay.  I would love the opportunity to show you this lovely home.  Just give me a call (850-974-0869) to schedule a private showing or stop by during my next open house.

You can find more information on this home by clicking here.  If you would like more information on the boat, shoot me an email and I can send you details.  Email me at:  Cindy.Zimmermann@cbrealty.com

Free Boat with Home Purchase.  This would make a Christmas present to remember!

Real Estate Tips November 30, 2023

Are Mortgage Rates too High?

Are mortgages rates too high?  Apparently, a lot of buyers think so.  As a result, many are sitting the sidelines waiting for them to drop.  Let’s first look at some quick mortgage rate history.

Mortgage Rate History

Freddie Mac provides mortgage rate history going back to 1971 when rates averaged 7.5%.  In the 1980’s the rate skyrocketed reaching a peak of 18.63% in 1981.  In the 90’s rates settled down and averaged out around 6.49%.  In the 2000’s, rates came down following the subprime lending market crash and averaged around 5%. In the 2010’s the rates started around 5%, bounced around and ended around 5%.  Then we all know that Covid hit, and rate fell to historic lows.  Today’s rates are hanging in the 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. The predictions for next year are for rates to settle somewhere in the 5’s by the 3rd quarter.  Historically, this is where rates like to hang barring atypical events.

Is Now a Good time to Buy?

Now I’m going to tell you that this is a good time to buy even with rate in the 7’s.  Why is that?  When rates were low sellers were in charge.  They were not giving any concessions.  They offered no help with closing costs, only made repairs necessary for the buyer to get a loan, many received over asking price and many asked to leased back their homes.  I had one seller who after getting $30,000 over their asking price, also got to stay in their home for 2 months past the closing date for free!  Not to mention buyers had to make split decisions on whether to make an offer.  The idea of sleeping on it or going back for a second look were out of the question.

The landscape has changed.  Buyers have more homes to choose from.  Sellers are accepting offers below their asking price, agreeing to make repairs, and many are offering to pay $10 – 15,000 for buyers’ closing costs and prepaids.  Some are even offering to buy down your mortgage rate.  Add that all up and you can see some serious savings along with taking your time to find the perfect home for you.

Predictions for the Near Future

The lack of competition now means that when mortgage rates do ease, buyers can expect a flood of pent-up demand to wash over the market.  Real-estate experts say high mortgage rates are probably here to stay for some time, and even if they drop below their current elevated levels, a return to the days of 3% is unlikely. This is especially true as the Federal Reserve maintains its outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates to keep a lid on inflation.

Are mortgage rates too high?  They are higher than we would like and are likely to start coming down later next year.  However, they are not too high for getting seller to negotiate and refi later.  I say take advantage of sellers not having the upper hand.  Buy when and what you can afford.  Marry the house, date the rate!

Call me today if you are ready to look and work a deal!

Real Sign used by a client of mine when their home was for sale in the 80’s!

Favorite Local Places November 16, 2023

Looking for the Best Brewery in Niceville?

Looking for the best brewery in Niceville?  Check out Third Planet.  It is locally owned and run.  The original location was opened in 2015 by 2 local veterans.  It quickly became so popular that they relocated to a much bigger space in 2018.  They continue to expand and improve the space to host even more customers.

Third planet offers a great variety of beer.  Many are brewed right on the premises.  They also offer many guest beers as well.  My personal favorite is the postal porter. The Dank Side of the Moon is a very popular IPA.   In 2022, they were awarded First Runner-Up for Best Large Brewery in the Best Florida Beer Championship. They have also been awarded “Finest Craft Brewery” and “Finest Craft Beer Selection” in the Northwest Florida Daily News “Finest of the Emerald Coast”.  Additionally, they were awarded “Best Brewery” by Emerald Coast Magazine’s “Best of the Emerald Coast” in 2022.  In 2023 it was named one of the best microbreweries by Mens Journal.

So, what else can you do besides drink some great beer?  Food is available most nights via local food trucks.  However, you are welcome to byof (bring your own food).  You can even have your favorite food door dashed.  Many Fridays and Saturdays, there is live entertainment.  During the week, they host trivia night and music bingo.  Saturday afternoons you might find charity events, craft fairs or car shows.   There is also the annual bonfire and Octoberfest.  You can always find what events are coming up and which food trucks will be there on their website.

Third planet is a great place for ages 1 to 101.  They even allow you to bring your fur babies.

Looking for the best brewery in Niceville, go check out Third Planet!  If you read this far, send me an email and say, “Beer me”.  If you are one of the first 2 to message me, I send you a $20 gift card to check it out.

Real Estate Tips November 3, 2023

Important Things to Know about your New Home

Congratulations, you just purchased a new home!  Once you get unpacked and settled in, there are some important things you should know about your new home.  Take some time to get acquainted with how your new property operates. The more you know, the less caught off guard you’ll be when problems arise and the faster you can return to the finer things in life.

  1. Water Shut Off Valve – In a plumbing emergency, you’ll want to know how to quickly find this valve and turn it off. Check for it in the garage or near your hot water tank.  Often times in Florida, you will find it outside in the ground.  It’s a good idea to turn this off when you are going to be away from your home for an extended period. It’s also a good idea to do so when fixing or replacing faucets or toilets.
  2. Electrical Panel – It’s good to know the location of this as well.  Some homes have more than 1.  If yours isn’t properly labelled, you will thank yourself later when you take the time to do so.  If there were any electrical concerns brought up on your home inspection report (because you took the advice of a good realtor and had a home inspection done), have them evaluated by a licensed electrician.
  3. Gas Shut Off – If your home has natural gas, it’s important that you know where your main gas supply is located. In a single-family house, you can usually find it on the side or back of the house, just before the gas meter. Gas leaks can be dangerous and even fatal. Once you’ve turned off the valve, go outside call the gas company.  Natural gas is naturally odorless, but there is an additive to give it smell for safety reasons.
  4. HVAC Filters – Replacing your HVAC filter on a regular basis is one of the best things you can do to keep it running efficiently.  Find the location and size of all the intake filters and keep a supply of new ones on hand.
  5. Smoke Detectors – The National Fire Protection Association suggests placing a smoke alarm inside each bedroom, outside each sleeping area, and on each level of your home.  If smoke alarms are already installed in your home, check their expiration dates and test them to confirm they are working properly.  If they have batteries, replace them now and then again, a year from now.  Not only will this help keep you and your family safe, but it will save you from the obnoxious beep at 3 a.m.
  6. Attic Access – Whether you want to examine its insulation, have a bunch of boxes that need a home, or are hearing strange animal sounds, it’s important to know where your attic is and what it has to offer. But before you start toting Christmas decor up there, verify that the floor is structurally sound, and the space is properly ventilated. To test the latter, touch your hand to the ceiling of a room below the attic on a hot day; if it’s warm, it may be a sign your attic is storing heat.  Installing an attic fan may be a good idea to save you on your AC bill.
  7. Underground Lines – This is a big one in Florida.  Before you dig, you will want to find out where your waterlines, sprinkler lines, cable line and more are located.  You may be surprised to find out how close to the surface they are.

This is just a few of the important things you should know about your new home.  If you took the advice of a great real estate agent, and had a home inspection done, the inspector probably included some great information in the report.  I would go back and read it.

Real Estate Tips October 16, 2023

Should you Paint your Home Before Selling?

Should you paint your home before selling?  If it needs it, yes!

Exterior

Let’s first talk about the exterior.  Any painted surfaces such as siding, trim, exterior doors, should be painted if they are chipped, faded or dirty beyond cleaning.  The exterior of your home is the first impression for a potential buyer along with your landscaping.  Poor appearance on the exterior gives the impression that your home has not been maintained.  Data shows that painting your exterior increases selling price and is a great return on investment.  Be careful of color choices – if in doubt, contact a local respected realtor for advice.  If your budget does not allow for painting the whole exterior, then focus on cleaning, touching up damaged areas, painting the trim and the front door.

Interior

What about the interior?  Painting your home’s interior can provide as great return on investment.  Take a really good look at your home’s interior.  I think you will notice chipped and scuffed paint especially on trim.  Door and cabinets can often show signs of paint wearing off.  You may need to paint to change over that room that you painted in your football team’s colors.

Color Selection

Again, a good realtor can guide on what colors would be best.  Any decorator will tell you that white is a complicated color.  I typically use a decorator to pick colors that best coordinate with the trim and floors.  You want there to be cohesiveness.  Lighter colors also make rooms look bigger.  A fresh coat of paint can make the whole home feel clean and well kept.  I will tell you that even property appraisers stay abreast of color trends and use that to help decide when the last time was your home was probably painted.

Hire a  Pro or DIY

Hiring a professional painter can be one of the cheapest upgrades you can make.  However, if you decide to paint yourself, please take these words of advice.  Use quality paint, use a quality brush (I prefer the Purdy brand) and protect your floors with a drop cloth.  Please take the time to remove switch plates and outlet covers before painting.  If you are not steady with a brush, tape off all trim with painter’s tape.  Nothing screams DIY like paint on switch plates and trim.

Nothing can transform your space as quickly or cost-effectively as a fresh coat of paint. Whether you’re putting a fresh coat on your front door for a great first impression or painting over a hot-pink bedroom, the answer to “Should you paint your home before selling?” is almost always yes.  There is great power in paint!

 

Real Estate Tips October 3, 2023

Are Homeowners’ Associations a Good Thing?

Are Homeowners’ Associations a Good Thing?  I would say that answer depends on what is important to you.

Let’s first talk about what a Homeowners’ Association is.  A HOA, or Homeowners’ Association, is a private organization typically established within a residential community or neighborhood to manage and enforce certain rules, regulations, and standards for the properties within that community.  Membership is usually mandatory but can be voluntary.

Some of the benefits of a neighborhood HOA may include:

Amenities: Many HOAs provide amenities such as pools, gyms, parks, club houses and common areas.

Security:  Some HOA fees cover the cost of a security system.  This could be as simple as a gate at the neighborhood entrance or could include security guards as well.

Maintenance Assistance: Many HOAs are responsible for maintaining and managing common areas within the community, such as parks, swimming pools, tennis courts, and landscaping. The cost of maintaining these areas is typically covered by the fees paid by homeowners.

Sense of Community: HOAs can foster a sense of community by organizing neighborhood potlucks, block parties, and other events. They may also mediate conflicts to ensure everyone in the neighborhood’s needs are met. Some offer neighborhood watch programs as well. This can be helpful for anyone who wants to have a close relationship with neighbors.

Protected Home Values: HOAs often have an architectural review committee that reviews and approves or denies proposed changes or additions to individual properties, ensuring that they conform to community standards. This can ensure cohesion and boost the overall aesthetic. HOA’s rules can also ensure everyone in the neighborhood maintains homes and curb appeal, protecting property values throughout the neighborhood.

Disadvantages of an HOA may include the following:

Fees, Fines, or Assessments: HOAs charge monthly or annual fees to cover things like maintenance and management costs. HOAs are also allowed to charge fines or special assessments for a breach of regulations or to cover unexpected costs like repairs or improvements. Fees can vary significantly from one HOA to another, and some will be more aggressive in applying fines than others.  Some HOA charge a first-time buyer’s fee.  They may even go so far as to require the board’s approval before you can purchase in the neighborhood.

Exterior Restrictions: HOAs can have strict rules about building renovations, exterior modifications, paint colors, landscaping, and even lawn decor or parking on the street.   Some rules may include no parking your boat or RV in your driveway.  This can feel restricting to some homeowners.

Lack of Property Versatility: Some HOAs will have rules restricting long-term renting, short-term renting (like an Airbnb), long-term guests, and even dog breeds, among other things. This can make your property less usable than a home outside of an HOA’s purview.

Rule Interpretation: HOA rules can be complex and, at times, subject to interpretation. This can lead to confusion and frustration if not addressed correctly. Changes in leadership can further complicate matters if rules are enforced differently than in the past.

It’s important for home buyers to carefully review the rules and regulations of an HOA before purchasing a property within a community governed by one, as membership in an HOA comes with both benefits and obligations, and the rules can vary significantly from one association to another. Some people appreciate the structure and amenities that an HOA provides, while others may find it restrictive.

So, are homeowners’ associations a good thing?  That depends on the buyer’s priorities.

When working with a realtor be sure to let them know your priorities and how you feel about HOAs.

 

Real Estate Market Status September 18, 2023

Will Things be Better for Home Buyers Next Year?

Will things be better for home buyers next year?  I know a lot of people who think so or at least hope so.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported recently that at least 20% of home buyers are waiting for interest rates or home prices to drop.

Home Prices:

Let’s address home prices in the Niceville area. The median sales price in August 2023 was $458,000, 3.51% higher than $442,450 from August 2022.  The average sales price in August 2023 was $561,681, 10.19% higher than $509,725 from August 2022.  The average sales price per square foot is a more normalized indicator for the direction of property value. The sales price per square foot in August 2023 was $256, 4.92% higher than $244 from August 2022.  As you can see, home prices continue to climb.

Inventory:

Why are sellers able to continue to ask for higher prices when interest rates are over 7%?  The answer is inventory.  Niceville currently sits at less than 1 1/2 months of inventory.  It takes about 6 months of inventory to be a neutral market.  Niceville hasn’t been in a neutral market since precovid.  NAR reported that nationwide for July 2023, we had the fewest number of existing homes for sale going back to 1982!  July is typically a month when you have a lot of homes for sale.

Interest Rates:

So, will interest rates get better? Morningstar economists are predicting rates will fall to 5% by the end of 2024 and 4% the year after. As soon as rates drop to these levels, those who have been “waiting out the market” are going to begin actively looking for homes and making offers.  Lower interest rates will cause a lot of people to compete for the same house. These lower rates allow buyers to qualify for more, which means they can afford to put in higher bids for the home they want, thus driving up home prices even more.

Predictions for 2024:

Inventory is expected to remain tight, “demand will probably exceed supply similar to current conditions,” and “supply is likely to remain below what we would deem a balanced market,” says Chen Zao, Economic Lead at RedFin.  These factors could lead to a sharp increase in home prices. In fact, an AEI housing market indicator report revealed they believe homes are expected to appreciate 7% in 2024.

A 7% increase in home prices is hugh!  I mentioned the median home price in Aug 2023 was $458,000.  A 7% increase would mean that same house would sell for $490,060.  That’s a $32,060 price increase!  If I were looking to buy, I would try to negotiate for the seller to help pay down my interest for the next 2 years and then I would refinance.  If you haven’t heard it before, the saying goes “Marry the house, date the rate“.

Curious how Niceville compares to other cities? You can compare on some of the key factors here.

Will things be better for home buyers next year?  The predictions are not really.

Real Estate Stats for Niceville FL

32578 Market Update

Favorite Local Places September 6, 2023

Have you had Dinner at Tradewinds in Niceville?

Have you had dinner at Tradewinds in Niceville?  I have many times and hope to have many more visits there!  According to their website, the restaurant has been around since 1996.  We moved to the area in 1999 and heard nothing but good things about it.  It is a locals’ favorite!  If you’ve never been, I encourage you to go.

There are a few things you should know first.  They only serve dinner.  They are closed on Sundays and Mondays.  You really do need a reservation even for Tuesday night.  When you call to make a reservation, you will most likely get the answering machine.  Leave a message, they will call you back!  There is a small bar that can seat 4 people.  When you sit at the bar, you get the unique pleasure of watching the cooks at work.  I would recommend asking to sit at the bar at least once.  And yes, you need a reservation for that too!

The food is Italian and the smell of garlic hits you as you walk through the door.  Yum!  I have never had a bad dish here.  Chicken Marsala is one of my favorites!  I know that the crab cakes and the grouper dishes are always popular. 

If you enjoy wine with your dinner, they have a nice selection.  If you prefer to bring your own bottle of wine, they will open it for a small corkage fee.

Desserts – yes those are fabulous too!  I’m usually to stuffed from the generous portions for dessert.  I figure that’s really why they make to-go boxes.

Usually around Labor Day, they shut down for a few weeks.  I believe right now they are set to re-open on September 14, 2023.

Another good tip for your visit:  the sign is a little hard to see.  Heading up Government Ave from John Sims Pkwy, it is less than a quarter mile up on your left.

I would love to hear your thoughts on Tradewinds.  What is your favorite dish?  Drop me an email or a text with your thoughts and name.  I will randomly draw a name from all that I received from today until September 15,2023.

Have you had dinner at Tradewinds in Niceville?  I think you should!